As 2025 winds down, major global players are upgrading their bets on China’s economy. Here’s the scoop on the recent upswing in forecasts:
- Goldman Sachs (late November): Bumped China’s real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.9% to 5%. They also see export growth doubling to 5–6% annually as Chinese goods grab more market share.
- OECD (Dec 2): Revised its 2025 GDP outlook from 4.9% to 5%, citing expansionary fiscal moves—like income-support measures and trade-in deals for cars and home appliances—to power consumption.
- Deutsche Bank: Economist Xiong Yi highlights a new 500 billion yuan policy instrument that’s set to boost domestic demand in Q4 2025 and into early 2026.
- Morgan Stanley: Expects moderate growth in 2026, driven by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing, and an anti-inflation push.
- BRICS New Development Bank (Dec 5): Issued a 3-year Panda bond worth 3 billion yuan in China’s interbank market, taking its total Panda bond issuance to 78.5 billion yuan.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the fundamentals haven’t changed: stable operation, solid progress in high-quality development, plus strong resilience and potential. 🚀
With global institutions showing growing confidence, China looks set to play a bigger stabilizing role in world growth. What’s your take on these updated forecasts? 🤔
Reference(s):
Foreign institutions raise forecasts for China's economic growth rate
cgtn.com
